Developed and validated a transferable dual-model SDM framework that separates fundamental environmental suitability from realized habitat under anthropogenic constraints—applied to Asian elephants across a 2,607 km² protected forest–agricultural frontier in south-central Bhutan. The Full Model (incorporating anthropogenic variables) substantially outperformed the environment-only Ideal Model (AUC 0.896 vs. 0.848), with anthropogenic pressure excluding ~57 km² (~10%) of highly suitable habitat. Human–elephant conflict clustered in high-quality core habitat (mean suitability 0.733 vs. 0.197 landscape-wide), demonstrating that conflict reflects niche overlap rather than displacement into marginal areas. The framework generates a three-category conservation triage map applicable to any megafauna system with occurrence data and anthropogenic predictor layers.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Climate-driven Habitat Changes and Refugia Dynamics for Asian Elephants in Bhutan under CMIP6 Scenarios","authors":"Wangdi & Laxmi Sagar","venue":"Ecology & Evolution","status":"Under Review","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":"/publications/manuscript_ecology_evolution.pdf","tags":["CMIP6","Climate refugia","Asian elephants","Ensemble SDM"]},"html":"Modelled present and future habitat suitability for Asian elephants across Bhutan using an ensemble of four algorithms (GLM, Random Forest, BRT, MaxEnt) calibrated against 252 georeferenced presence records, 837 field-verified absences, and 17 ecological predictors—projected across 96 CMIP6 scenarios (8 GCMs × 4 SSPs × 3 time periods to 2100). Currently 4,649 km² (14.1% of Bhutan) is classified as suitable, with 74.1% lying outside the formal protected area network. Identified 4,160 km² of climate-stable core refugia, of which 53.6% lies outside protected areas. Mean human–elephant conflict risk is projected to escalate from 0.103 (present) to 0.140 under SSP5-8.5 by 2071–2100, revealing a spatial paradox where critical survival zones coincide with high-conflict hotspots and indicating fundamental mismatches between current PA placement and megafauna habitat requirements.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Integrating Biodiversity, Structural Complexity, and Canopy Dynamics Across a National Forest Gradient in Bhutan: Implications for Monitoring and Management","authors":"Wangdi, Laxmi Sagar, Sangay Chedup, Sangay Dorjee & Tashi Waiba Norbu","venue":"Forest Ecology and Management","status":"Under Review","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":"/publications/Wangdi_etal_FEM_2026_main.pdf","tags":["National Forest Inventory","Structural complexity","MODIS EVI","Mountain forests"]},"html":"Integrated 107,876 records across 2,185 species from 1,942 National Forest Inventory plots with environmental rasters and MODIS EVI trends (2000–2024) to assess biodiversity, structural complexity, and canopy dynamics across Bhutan's full elevational gradient. Mean plot richness peaked at 500–1,000 m (17.09 ± 9.13 species, range 1–57) and declined sharply above 4,000 m. Forest type explained modest compositional variation (PERMANOVA R² = 0.089, p = 0.001). Pixel-level analysis showed 29.86% of Bhutan exhibiting significant greening, yet EVI trends were only weakly correlated with species richness (ρ = 0.126) and structural complexity (ρ = 0.097). Demonstrates that satellite-derived greenness is not a reliable proxy for floristic or structural change, and provides a transferable integrated inventory–remote sensing workflow for multi-indicator monitoring of climate-sensitive mountain forests.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Species Distribution and Connectivity Modeling of Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus) Under Environmental and Anthropogenic Pressures in Bhutan","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Manuscript under review","status":"Under Review","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":null,"tags":["Connectivity modelling","Asian elephants","Habitat fragmentation","Transboundary corridors"]},"html":"Quantified species distribution and functional corridor connectivity for Asian elephants across Bhutan under simultaneous environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Integrated landscape-scale habitat modelling with circuit-theory connectivity analysis to identify priority movement pathways, fragmentation hotspots, and structural barriers to dispersal. Provides a spatial baseline for corridor management and transboundary conservation planning between Bhutan and northeastern India.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Vegetation Community Composition and Species–Environment Relationships Along an Elevational Gradient in South-Central Bhutan","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Journal of Vegetation Science","status":"Under Review","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":"/publications/01_manuscript_jvs.pdf","tags":["Elevational gradient","Community ecology","Canonical correspondence analysis","Regeneration dynamics"]},"html":"Analysed vegetation data across 220 plots spanning four strata (trees, shrubs, herbs, regeneration) in unmanaged subtropical to cool broadleaved forests (260–1,964 m a.s.l.) in south-central Bhutan. Community composition differed significantly among forest types across all strata (PERMANOVA R² 0.017–0.050; p = 0.001), while environmental predictors (temperature–elevation and precipitation gradients) explained 3.2–3.8% of variation in trees and shrubs. Trees showed the highest Shannon diversity (1.391 ± 0.595); herbs the lowest (0.325 ± 0.451). Random forest models for regeneration richness showed modest cross-validated performance (RMSE 1.165 ± 0.182; R² 0.142 ± 0.040). Results demonstrate that fine-scale heterogeneity and vertical decoupling dominate community assembly along this gradient, with implications for monitoring climate-driven compositional shifts in Himalayan broadleaved forests.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Ecosystem Integrity in Bhutan's Protected Area Network: A Spatial Assessment Using the Ecosystem Integrity Index","authors":"Wangdi Wangdi & Tashi Choden","venue":"Manuscript under review","status":"Under Review","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":"/publications/Manuscript_revised_MAIN.pdf","tags":["Ecosystem Integrity Index","Protected areas","Remote sensing","KM-GBF Target 3"]},"html":"Applied the globally standardised Ecosystem Integrity Index (EII) to all 19 protected areas and biological corridors in Bhutan's Eastern Himalayan network (19,750 km² at 300 m resolution via Google Earth Engine). Network-wide area-weighted mean EII was 0.679 (SD = 0.102), with 14 of 19 protected areas maintaining mean values above 0.60. Structural and compositional integrity were consistently high (means > 0.950), while functional integrity showed greater heterogeneity (mean = 0.655). Biological corridors exhibited the widest integrity range (0.478–0.821), with direct implications for landscape connectivity management. Provides the first national-scale test of EII-based monitoring as a KM-GBF Target 3 compliance tool in a Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Tiger Occupancy and Large Ungulate Distribution Along a Human Pressure Gradient in South-Central Bhutan: A Hierarchical Detection-Occupancy Approach","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Manuscript in preparation","status":"In Preparation","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":null,"tags":["Occupancy modelling","Tiger","Ungulates","Human pressure gradient"]},"html":"Applies a hierarchical detection-occupancy framework to quantify tiger occupancy and large ungulate distribution along a human pressure gradient in south-central Bhutan. Separates detection probability from true occupancy to identify landscape-scale drivers of tiger space use, prey base availability, and the influence of human activity on predator–prey dynamics across a protected area–buffer zone–community forest mosaic.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Spatiotemporal Risk Partitioning Among Tigers, Prey, and Human Activity in South-Central Bhutan","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Manuscript in preparation","status":"In Preparation","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":null,"tags":["Spatiotemporal ecology","Risk partitioning","Tiger","Camera trapping"]},"html":"Examines how tigers, prey species, and human activity partition space and time in a shared multi-use landscape in south-central Bhutan. Uses occupancy and activity pattern analysis from systematic camera trap data to quantify temporal overlap, avoidance, and co-occurrence dynamics among apex predators, ungulate prey, and human disturbance—revealing how wildlife and people navigate shared landscapes under varying pressure gradients.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Community Assembly and Environmental Filtering Along a Disturbance-Climate Gradient in a Himalayan Tiger Landscape","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Manuscript in preparation","status":"In Preparation","year":"2026","external":null,"pdf":null,"tags":["Community assembly","Environmental filtering","Disturbance gradient","Himalaya"]},"html":"Investigates how plant community assembly and environmental filtering operate along a combined disturbance–climate gradient within a Himalayan tiger conservation landscape. Examines the relative roles of abiotic filtering, dispersal limitation, and disturbance history in structuring vegetation communities across a gradient from low-disturbance forest interior to high-disturbance edge and human-influenced zones, with implications for monitoring vegetation change in multi-use protected landscapes.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Analysis of Physical and Chemical Properties of Natural Salt Licks and Determination of Animal Presence","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Journal of Renewable Natural Resources Bhutan","status":"Published","year":"2021","external":"https://www.bjnrd.org/index.php/bjnrd/article/view/80/77","pdf":null,"tags":["Salt licks","Wildlife ecology","Mineral nutrition","Bhutan"]},"html":"Characterised the physical and chemical properties of natural salt licks and quantified wildlife visitation patterns across Bhutan's forests. Found significant variation in mineral composition across lick types and documented multi-species use including large ungulates and carnivores. Established baseline data on a critical mineral resource that shapes large mammal space use and habitat selection in the Eastern Himalayan region.
"}},{"node":{"frontmatter":{"title":"Diversity of Aquatic Beetles Along Altitudinal Gradients and Water Quality Parameters","authors":"Wangdi et al.","venue":"Journal of Renewable Natural Resources Bhutan","status":"Published","year":"2021","external":null,"pdf":null,"tags":["Aquatic beetles","Altitudinal gradient","Water quality","Macroinvertebrates"]},"html":"Quantified aquatic beetle (Coleoptera) diversity across an altitudinal gradient and assessed relationships with water-quality parameters in Bhutanese waterways. Documented how elevation and physicochemical conditions structure macroinvertebrate communities in Himalayan streams. Findings contribute baseline biodiversity data for freshwater conservation planning in a globally significant mountain biodiversity hotspot.
"}}]}}}